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Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread
by Ryan Metivier in NFL Football
Updated Nov 25, 2023 · 3:05 PM PST
Nov 19, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Minnesota Viking quarterback Joshua Dobbs (15) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Denver Broncos in the third quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY SportsThis week our expert NFL ATS picks have selections from seven different games for Week 12We have dueling opinions in the Patriots vs Giants picks on Sunday with New England listed as 3.5-point road favoritesGet all of our top NFL picks against the spread from these games and more here
Week 12 is well underway with the Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday games in the books, but that still leaves another 12 games for us to pick from for our weekly NFL picks against the spread. This week, we’ve narrowed the board to seven of those games and eight different teams from our ATS pickers including picks from both SNF and MNF.
Read on for all of our top Week 12 NFL picks against the spread here.
NFL Expert Picks Today
| Ryan Metivier | Bob Duff | Zach Reger |
|---|---|---|
| Cardinals +2.5 | Falcons +1.5 | Patriots -3.5 |
| Giants +3.5 | Buccaneers +2.5 | Bengals +1.5 |
| Ravens -3 | Vikings -3 | Vikings -3 |
| Record: 12-18-3 | Record: 10-22-1 | Record: 16-15-2 |
This week’s most popular NFL ATS picks in the table above come in on the Minnesota Vikings getting back to winning ways, or at least covering in the NFL picks against the spread on Monday Night Football as 3-point favorites.
Before making your Week 12 picks against the spread, be sure to sign-up and bet on NFL with these apps to claim your new customer bonus for Week 12.
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Ryan Metivier
Cardinals (+2.5)
It’s slim pickings when I’m going with the Cardinals, but hey, they came through for me last week so let’s go back to the well.
Arizona lost last week, 21-16 in Houston, but if you had the six points they still got the cover, or at least a push if you got it at five. They’re 6-5 ATS on the season and are starting to get healthy with Kyler Murray and James Connor returning.
The Rams are the opposite. Both of their top receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are dealing with injuries. Kupp missed practice this week and Nucua has been limited.
LA may also be coming off a win, 17-16 to Seattle, but they entered the fourth quarter down 16-7 and needed a Geno Smith injury to help them get the win. With Smith out of the game, Drew Lock was forced into action and promptly threw and interception with the score 16-14 Seattle to give the Rams the opportunity to kick a winning field goal. The Cardinals have been poor versus the Rams in recent years winning just 2/14 games, including a 26-9 loss in LA this season. That came without Murray and Connor, and with them there seems to be some extra bounce in the Cards’ offense, enough to pull the upset at home.
Giants (+3.5)
I’m not overreacting to the Giants win last week, I’m just reacting to the Patriots being favored, and being favored by more than a field goal, on the road, to anyone. They have two wins by four points or more in their past 14 games.
Mac Jones only has ten touchdown passes in ten games and may not even get the start this week. If he doesn’t it’s Bailey Zappe or Will Grier, neither of which offer much or any improvement.
These are the two lowest scoring teams in the league. New England is coming off a bye, so they’ll have some rest advantage, but when we last saw them they were scoring six points, six, in Germany versus the Colts 18th-ranked defense.
It may not have been a pretty win, but the Giants found a way to put up 31 points in Washington and beat the Commanders 31-19. That included three passing touchdowns from rookie Tommy DeVito, earning him Rookie of the Year honors. Giants may lose, but they’ll hang around against an equally poor team.
"The Baltimore Ravens are going to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl with the way they're playing right now"@Edelman11 is all in on the @Ravens 👀 pic.twitter.com/lWwTnw4sVD
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 19, 2023
Ravens (-3)
Another week, another game where the Chargers snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and another game that’s decided by one score or less. In fact, it’s another game decided by four points or less. Win or lose, 7/10 games for LA have been decided by seven or fewer points and 6/10 by four or fewer.
You can say this about LA though to stretch this close game narrative a bit further, of the four games they’ve played decided by more than three points, only one was a loss, and it came in Kansas City.
However, in all five games that have been decided by a field goal or less, LA is 0-5. This game falls right around that number at Ravens -3 in the NFL odds, so oddsmakers are expecting a close game. And close games are where Chargers wins and covers go to die.
Los Angeles has just two wins in six games and those came to the Jets and Bears, while the Ravens have won 5/6 and have routed Seattle 37-3 and Detroit 38-6 in recent weeks. They’ll also get some extra rest having not played since last Thursday.
Best NFL Week 12 Parlays and TeasersRead More
Bob Duff
Falcons (+1)
Going on the road, New Orleans doesn’t do well when giving the points. The Saints are 3-6-1 in their last 10 games as the away favorite.
Atlanta deals when well-rested. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games coming back from their bye week.
Buccaneers (+2.5)
On the one hand, Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS over the last nine games. However, the Colts are 3-7 in the last 10 as the home chalk and 8-12 ATS in their last 20 as a home favorite.
Tampa Bay has proven to be a dynamic underdog play this season. The Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS as the betting underdog.
Vikings (-3)
Straight up, Minnesota has won 10 of its last 18 games as the betting choice. The Vikings have also covered in the past six games they’ve played.
Chicago has lost 12 divisional games in a row SU. The Bears are also 3-12 ATS through their past 15 games facing NFC North clubs.
Zach Reger
Patriots (-3.5)
After a huge win last week, the Giants will come back down to Earth. Bill Belichick is great against rookie quarterbacks, so I expect Tommy DeVito to struggle in this one. The Patriots are also coming off the bye and will be motivated to play well.
Bill Belichick not budging when asked about his starting QB, repeating what he said earlier in the week: Told everybody to be ready to go.
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) November 24, 2023
Bengals (+1.5)
This will be a typical hard-fought, low-scoring AFC North game. Jake Browning had extra time to prepare as the new QB1 for Cincinnati after the mini-bye, so I am going to trust him to get the ball to his talented playmakers on offense. I like getting the points with the home team.
Vikings (-3)
I expect Josh Dobbs and Minnesota to bounce back after a tough loss to the Broncos last week. Minnesota outplayed Denver, but turnovers proved to be too costly for the Vikings. That should not be as big of an issue against Chicago’s defense. The Bears are better with Justin Fields, but they are still the Bears.
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