Oakland vs Michigan State Odds, Spread & Picks

Michigan State’s Tyson Walker gets back on defense after scoring against Wisconsin during the first half on Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2023, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.The Oakland Grizzlies visit the Michigan State Spartans on Dec. 18Michigan State is coming off its best win of the season while Oakland has lost two of threeSee the Oakland vs Michigan State odds, picks, and predictions for Monday’s game at the Breslin Center

The Oakland Grizzlies (6-5, 3-2 away, 9-2 ATS) travel an hour-and-a-half down I-96 on Monday night to face the Michigan State Spartans (5-5, 4-2 home, 4-6 ATS) at the Breslin Center in East Lansing at 7:00 pm ET.

Coming off their best game of the season – an 88-64 rout of #8 Baylor – the Spartans are massive home-court favorites over an Oakland team that’s already taken down one Power 6 team on the road this year.

Oakland vs Michigan State Odds

Monday’s college basketball odds list MSU as 16.5-point favorite and -1600 on the moneyline. Oakland comes back at +900 to win straight-up, while the game total in this battle of slow-paced teams is just 136.5.

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Despite ample early struggles, the Spartans remain a top-15 favorite in the March Madness odds at +2757, though that has faded from +1650 at the start of the season.

MSU Crushes Baylor in Detroit

After falling below .500 (and to 0-2 in Big Ten play) with a loss at Nebraska on Dec. 10 (77-70), the Spartans had six days to stew before a clash with the #8 Baylor Bears at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit on Saturday. They came out fast and didn’t let up, using an early 27-4 run to take a 45-17 halftime lead. MSU’s lead was never fewer than 20 in the second half as they cruised to a cathartic 88-64 win and handed Baylor its first loss of the season.

As he’s done all season, guard Tyson Walker (20.8 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.8 APG) led the Spartans with 25 points on 9-of-16 shooting, including 4-of-4 from three, while adding four assists, three rebounds, a block, and five steals.

Michigan’s quintet of early-season setbacks can largely be pinned on ice-cold shooting. This was a team that finished last year third in the entire nation in three-point percentage (39.3%) yet, even after an 8-of-12 performance against Baylor, is still sitting just 261st out of 362 DI teams (32.0%), despite returning five of its top-six scorers.

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Oakland’s Strong Start Hits Speedbumps

Oakland’s 1-3 start to the season was more encouraging than its ugly SU record suggested. The team easily covered in true road losses at Ohio State (79-73 as 19.5-point underdogs) and Illinois (64-53 as 24.5-point underdogs) before hitting its stride with a four-game win streak that included a road win at Xavier as 15-point ‘dogs. By the end of that four-game run, the Grizzlies – who started the season rated just 271st at KenPom, had climbed nearly 150 spots to 123rd.

But Oakland suffered its first home loss of the season (and its first ATS setback) on Dec. 2 to Purdue Fort Wayne, falling 98-77 as five-point home chalk. That was followed closely by a one-point home loss to Toledo (69-68) as one-point home favorites.

They got back in the win column last time out with a 77-63 road win at Eastern Michigan as 5.5-point favorites. Leading scorer and rebounder Trey Townsend (15.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.3 APG) had one of his best games of the season, scoring 22 points and grabbing nine rebounds while shooting 9-of-12 from the field.

A notable storyline heading into Monday’s game is the presence of Oakland senior guard Rocket Watts, who spent his freshman and sophomore years with Michigan State.  When these in-state rivals met last year, Oakland covered a 21-point spread during a 67-54 MSU victory, but Watts was abysmal. He had just four points on 2-of-8 shooting with one rebound, one assist, and five turnovers.

Oakland vs Michigan State Prediction

The manner in which Michigan State routed Baylor was scary. The Spartans finally showed why they started this season as the #4 team in preseason AP Poll and Coaches Poll. But I am still going to back Oakland. The Grizzlies are battle tested against three P6 teams, covering each one and, as mentioned, even beating Xavier straight-up on the Musketeers’ home court. (Xavier isn’t setting the world on fire this season but is a top-50 team with wins over Saint Mary’s and Cincinnati.)

While the spread for the full game is 16.5, the first-half line is well over half of that, currently sitting at MSU -9.5. The Spartans play at one of the slowest tempos in the country (306th) and Oakland isn’t much faster (238th). If the Spartans are hitting at 66% from three again, there’s not much anyone will be able to do. But it’s more likely that MSU’s shooting comes back to earth after its scorching performance against Baylor. Oakland absolutely has the talent to keep the margin to single-digits in the first 20 minutes.

Oakland vs MSU pick: Oakland first-half +9.5 (-115)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NCAAM betting record:

ATS: 12-9 (+1.92 units)Moneyline: 0-1 (-1.00 units)Player props: 1-1 (-0.13 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.