New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction & Odds – CUSA Championship Game

Nov 25, 2023; El Paso, Texas, USA; No. 22 Liberty Flames running back Quinton Cooley (20) runs the ball against the UTEP Miners defense during the first half at Sun Bowl Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ivan Pierre Aguirre-USA TODAY SportsThe #20 Liberty Flames are 10.5-point home favorites over the New Mexico State Aggies in the Conference USA championship game on Friday, December 1Liberty is a perfect 12-0 straight up on the seasonNew Mexico State is 10-0 ATS over the past 10 games

The #20 Liberty Flames (12-0, 8-4 ATS) are seeking to both win a championship and maintain a perfect season as they meet the New Mexico State Aggies (10-3, 11-2 ATS) in the Conference USA title game.

Among the victories this season for the Flames is a 33-17 home-field victory over the Aggies on September 9. In fact, Liberty is 4-1 straight up and 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five meetings with New Mexico State.

The Flames covered as the 9.5-point home chalk in that early-season meeting. This time, they are 10.5-point home favorites in the New Mexico State vs Liberty odds.

Taking a deeper look into the New Mexico State vs Liberty odds, we’ll offer you our prediction for this CUSA championship game.

New Mexico State vs Liberty Odds

In the New Mexico State vs Liberty odds, the Flames are -400 moneyline favorites, giving them a 80% implied win probability. The total is set at 57.5 points. That’s two points higher than the regular-season meeting between the two schools.

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Odds as of Dec. 1 at BetMGM. Check out our BetMGM Review before betting on Aggies vs Flames and other college football Week 14 action this week.

Liberty is 3-1 SU at home in the last four games against New Mexico State. At home this season, the Flames are 7-0 SU but just 4-3 ATS.

Kickoff for this game at Williams Stadium on Friday, December 1 is set for 7:00 pm ET. The broadcast is being carried by the CBS Sports Network.

Aggies vs Flames Betting Trends

In the college football public betting splits, spread players are showing indecision when it comes to how to wager on this game. Spread handle splits are overwhelmingly with Liberty at 80%. However, there’s 67% of bets going with New Mexico State.

The Aggies are the nation’s #1 ATS squad this season at 11-2. New Mexico State is also 6-0 ATS in the last past six road games. Liberty has failed to cover the the school’s last two games.

The Flames are 7-5 on the total this season. The total has gone over in five of Liberty’s last six games. Six of New Mexico State’s last seven games have gone under.

Flames Lighting Up Scoreboard

Liberty is the #6 scoring offense in the nation. The Flames put up on average 40.1 points per game. They’re also #5 in total offense, racking up 498.5 yards per game.

Liberty literally runs away from opponents. The Flames are the country’s top rushing offense, grinding out 295.4 yards per game on the ground. They are #2 in the nation in both rushing TDs (34) and yards per rush (5.94).

Stop us if you've heard this one before… Kaidon Salter finds CJ Daniels for a @LibertyFootball touchdown!

📺: @CBSSportsNet pic.twitter.com/Oi7uRWl7j1

— Conference USA (@ConferenceUSA) November 25, 2023

RB Quinton Cooley has run for 13 of those TDs. He’s 11th in the nation with 1,251 yards rushing. QB Kaidon Salter is no slouch when carrying the rock, either. He’s rumbled for 899 yards on the ground and 11 TDs. Salter has also passed for 2,431 yards, with 29 TDs against five interceptions.

He’s tied for eighth in the country in TD passes. Nine of Salter’s TD passes have gone to WR CJ Daniels.

2023-24 College Football Playoff Odds TrackerRead More

Pavia Sets The Tone For Aggies

New Mexico State goes as QB Diego Pavia goes. And lately, Pavia has really been going.

Diego Pavia quickly becoming my favorite QB in college football

pic.twitter.com/QJuiJWOpCu

— Colby Dant (@TheColbyD) October 19, 2023

Over the past eight games, he’s thrown for 11 TDs and rushed for five more scores. Not only does Pavia lead the Aggies in passing with 2,727 yards and 23 TDs, he’s also their leading rusher with 807 yards on the ground.

In the early-season loss to Liberty, Pavia was picked off twice.

New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction

Since launching the season 2-3, the Aggies have won eight in a row. They are 10-0 ATS since that loss to Liberty. Earlier this season, New Mexico State covered as 25-point underdogs in a 31-10 win over Auburn. In their last three games, the Aggies have won outright as betting underdogs.

That won’t happen here. Liberty is the better team and will win the game. While the Flames have failed to cover in their last two games, it’s important to note that Liberty is 6-0 ATS when favored by 14 points or less this season.

New Mexico State vs Liberty Pick: Liberty Flames -10.5 (-105)

 

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