Bruins vs Leafs Game 6 Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Picks

Apr 30, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Toronto Maple Leafs left wing Matthew Knies (23) scores the game winning goal past Boston Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman (1) during overtime in game five of the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY SportsThe Boston Bruins face the Toronto Maple Leafs in Game 6 on Thursday nightThe Maple Leafs are small home favorites to force a Game 7Read below for Bruins vs Maple Leafs Game 6 prediction, odds, and player prop picks

The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to stave off elimination for the second straight night when they host the Boston Bruins in Game 6 of their first-round playoff series on Thursday. The puck drops at 8:00 PM ET, with CBC and TBS carrying the broadcast.

The Bruins vs Leafs Game 6 odds favor Toronto to extend the series once again, with oddsmakers setting the blue and white as short home favorites. The latest Auston Matthews injury update is that the Leafs’ star is officially OUT tonight.

Here is our Bruins vs Leafs Game 6 prediction, along with odds and player prop picks.

Bruins vs Leafs Prediction

We’ve made our prediction for Bruins vs Leafs Game 6, concentrating on the game total for Thursday evening. We’ve factored the low-scoring nature of Game 5 into our best bet for Game 6.

Leafs Avoid Elimination

The Maple Leafs secured a critical victory in Game 5 on Monday, beating the Bruins 3-2 in overtime thanks to Matthew Knies’ game-winner early in the extra frame. Toronto’s true star of Game 5, however, was goalie Joseph Woll, who stopped 27 shots in his first start of the series.

Toronto avoided elimination despite not having star forward Auston Matthews in the lineup. The American superstar missed Game 5 due to illness and has been ruled out again for Game 6. While the Leafs are actually 36-19-2 all-time without Matthews in the lineup, not having the 69-goal-scorer in the lineup stings.

Toronto outshot Boston 11-2 in the first period Monday and 33-28 on the night overall. Getting off to another fast start will be key against a motivated Boston team. The Bruins blew a 3-1 series deficit to the Panthers last year and certainly don’t want history to repeat itself.

My Game 6 Best Bets

Will the Leafs be able to carry over the momentum from Game 5 into Game 6? We’d be more optimistic if Toronto played well at Scotiabank Arena this postseason. As it stands right now, Boston has dominated the Leafs in Toronto this season, winning two regular-season meetings, plus Games 3 and 4 of this series.

Woll’s emergence in the goal crease is a reason to consider betting the Leafs to win. Boston’s shooters may not be as confident facing him as they did facing Samsonov. However, it’s worth mentioning Boston lit up Woll for 12 goals in two games during the regular season.

Joseph Woll this postseason:

— 2 games played— 32 saves on 33 shots— .970 sv%— 1.729 goals saved above expected/60 (2nd in NHL behind Swayman)— 1 goal against in 79:49 time on ice

Toronto has a goalie. pic.twitter.com/nVbsH5VeTV

— Big Head Hockey (@BigHeadHcky) May 1, 2024

If we were picking a side, we’d lean toward the Leafs, as they have the momentum and have been the better 5-on-5 team by a notable margin. However, our best pick is the “under”, given the goaltending and tight-checking nature of elimination games.

The Bruins vs Leafs series has cashed the Under in three of the past four meetings, and we don’t expect things to change with the way the goalies are performing. Boston has done most of its damage on the power play, so we expect the Leafs to clench the sticks even tighter on Thursday to avoid many trips to the box.

Pick: Under 5.5 (+100)

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Bruins vs Maple Leafs Game 6 Odds

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
BOS Bruins	+1.5 (-270)	-105	Over 5.5 (-120)
TOR Maple Leafs	-1.5 (+220)	-115	Under 5.5 (+100)

Toronto is a -115 moneyline favorite in the Game 6 Bruins vs Leafs odds, which gives them a 53.5% implied win probability. Boston comes back as the -105 underdog, which gives them a 51.2% implied chance of winning.

The best betting line for the Leafs right now is -115 at Bet365 Sportsbook. This means that a successful $10 bet would profit $8.70. The Bruins are around -105 at online sportsbooks, with a successful $ 10 wager on the B’s returning $19.52 (including your stake).

Auston Matthews’ injury status will impact this betting line, so make sure you are keeping up with the latest NHL updates. Matthews skated on Wednesday, but it’s unlikely that he will suit up. If he’s ruled IN, Toronto could become closer to a -130 favorite.

 

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BOS vs TOR Player Props for Game 6

Here are some of the NHL Player props available for Bruins vs Maple Leafs Game 6. There is no odds-on favorite to find the back of the net on Thursday, although David Pastrnak (+125), William Nylander (+135), and John Tavares (+145) all have odds shorter than +150.

Player	Anytime Goalscorer	Shots on Goal (O/U)	Points (O/U)	Saves (O/U)
David Pastrnak	+125	3.5 (-145o/+114u)	1.5 (+185o/-245u)	N/A
William Nylander	+135	3.5 (-105o/-125u)	1.5 (+185o/-245u)	N/A
John Tavares	+145	3.5 (+114o/-145u)	0.5 (-160o/+124u)	N/A
Mitchell Marner	+170	2.5 (+105o/-135u)	1.5 (+170o/-220u)	N/A
Brad Marchand	+185	2.5 (+110o/-140u)	0.5 (-190o/+145u)	N/A
Tyler Bertuzzi	+195	2.5 (-125o/-105u)	0.5 (-125o/-105u)	N/A
Jake DeBrusk	+250	1.5 (-160o/+124u)	0.5 (+114o/-145u)	N/A
Pavel Zacha	+275	1.5 (-160o/+124u)	0.5 (-125o/-105u)	N/A
Max Domi	+290	2.5 (+130o/-166u)	0.5 (+100o/-130u)	N/A
Matthew Knies	+330	N/A	N/A	N/A

Matthews Knies Anytime Goalscorer

Matthew Knies, the Game 5 hero, is available at +330 to get on the board Thursday. That’s just a 23% implied probability for a player heating up at the perfect time. The 21-year-old rookie has goals in two of his past three games and is playing with a ton of confidence right now.

Knies seems to have a knack for coming through in clutch moments, as he’s netted three goals and six points in his last seven playoff games. Sheldon Keefe seems to trust the youngster, as he’s slotted Knies on the second line with Tavares and Nylander.

Knies saw 17:03 of ice time with Matthews out of the lineup Monday, and he took full advantage, firing four shots on goal. With two goals in his last three games, Knies is the best bet to find twine for the Leafs tonight.

Prop Pick: Matthew Knies Anytime Goal (+330)

Bruins vs Leafs Game 6 Injury Report

Bruins defender Brandon Carlo is dealing with an unspecified issue, but he is expected to suit up against the Maple Leafs in Game 6 on Thursday.

Leafs superstar Auston Matthews is dealing with an illness and won’t play against the Bruins in Game 6.

 

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