Baltimore Ravens vs LA Chargers Same Game Parlay Sunday Night Football Predictions

Nov 12, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) celebrates with tight end Stone Smartt (84) after a touchdown against the Detroit Lions during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY SportsSee the Baltimore Ravens vs LA Chargers same-game parlay for Week 12 Sunday Night FootballBaltimore has held a fourth-quarter lead in all three of its losses this seasonToday’s BAL vs LAC same-game parlay is founded on the Chargers playing from behind

The Week 12 Sunday Night Football matchup sees the Baltimore Ravens (8-3, 4-1 away, 7-4 ATS) visiting the Los Angeles Chargers (4-6, 2-3 home, 4-6 ATS) at SoFi Stadium at 8:20 pm ET.

The Ravens are coming off a 34-20 home win over the mostly Joe Burrow-less Bengals, consolidating their lead atop the AFC North, while the Chargers suffered a devastating 23-20 home loss to the Green Bay Packers, dropping them two full games out of a playoff spot and turning this Week 12 SNF game into a veritable must-win.

Ravens vs Chargers Same-Game Parlay Picks

The first leg of today’s Ravens vs Chargers same-game parlay is a bet on Justin Herbert achieving a very manageable 225-plus passing yards. The second is a mostly-correlated play on ageing Austin Ekeler to stay under 48.5 rushing yards. Both of these legs became all the more likely to hit if, as I predict, the Ravens jump out to an early lead.

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Odds as of Nov. 19 on the FanDuel app. New users can still claim the FanDuel promo for November to bet on Ravens vs Chargers. 

A devastating loss on my Week 11 Minnesota/Denver same-game parlay – which only needed six more yards from TJ Hockenson, who dropped two six-yard targets on the final drive – drops me to +1.73 units on the season.

The NFL public betting splits for Sunday Night Football show the Chargers getting a little more of the ATS money (55% as three-point home underdogs) but the Ravens getting a lot more of the moneyline handle (98% as of 2:15 pm ET).

BAL vs LAC Same-Game Parlay Pick #1: Justin Herbert Over 224.5 Passing Yards

The Week 12 NFL player props list Justin Herbert’s passing yards over/under at 244.5. FanDuel is offering over 224.5 at -210. Herbert is averaging just over 260 passing yards per game this season and has only been held under 225 twice. It’s only happened once at home, and that was during a 24-17 win over the Las Vegas Raiders when Herbert threw a season-low 24 passes while his Chargers were nursing a 24-7 halftime lead. Los Angeles was also given multiple short fields in the first half of the Raiders game, twice turning Las Vegas fumbles into short touchdown drives.

It’s highly unlikely Baltimore gifts the Chargers an early lead. With the Chargers 18th in the NFL in rushing yards (105.7) and 20th in yards per rush (4.1), it’s going to be incumbent on Herbert and his receivers to move the ball.

Baltimore’s pass defense has been one of the best in the NFL in terms of yards against, allowing just 169.7 yards per game so far this season.

But take that with a grain of salt. Last year, they were mid-pack at 229.4. This season, they have had the benefit of playing a lot of subpar QBs: Gardner Minshew (Colts), Dorian Thompson-Robinson/Deshaun Watson (Browns), Kenny Pickett (Steelers), Ryan Tannehill/Malik Willis (Titans), and Jake Browning (Bengals).

The three best quarterbacks they’ve faced (at least in terms of 2023 production) – Joe Burrow, CJ Stroud, and Jared Goff – averaged 249.5 yards per game and all hit at least 222.

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Ravens vs Chargers SGP Pick #2: Austin Ekeler Under 48.5 Rushing Yards

The second leg of today’s parlay is a fade of Charger running back Austin Ekeler, at least on the ground. The 28-year-old is averaging a little over today’s total of 48.5 rushing yards on the season (56.5) but that’s largely attributable to one 117-yard game in Week 1 against Miami. After missing multiple games due to injury thereafter, he’s averaging just 46.5 rushing yards per game in six games returning. He’s exceeded 48.5 twice and stayed under four times.

A lot has been made of his (apparently) decreased footspeed over the course of the week.

Austin Ekeler moving like a fullback? pic.twitter.com/mIftAJzGn5

— Nico (@elitetakes_) November 19, 2023

I don’t expect the game script to play into Ekeler’s favor, either. The 8-3 Ravens are 4-1 on the road, including wins at Cincinnati (with Joe Burrow) and at Cleveland. The Chargers, meanwhile, are just 2-3 at home, including a loss last week to the sub-.500 Green Bay packers (23-20).

Baltimore is a significantly better team, and it’s held a fourth-quarter lead in all three of its losses this season (Colts, Steelers, Browns). I expect the Chargers to be playing from behind, which will get them away from the ground game even more than usual.

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