Week 18 NFL Upset Picks – Underdogs Showing Value

Dec 31, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants wide receiver Darius Slayton (86) celebrates with quarterback Tyrod Taylor (2) and wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson (17) after his touchdown reception during the second half against the Los Angeles Rams at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY SportsSee which Week 18 teams we think can cash your NFL underdog tickets this weekendCan the Cardinals snap a four-game losing streak versus the Seahawks and pull off another upset for the second game in a row?Check out our favorite Week 18 NFL upset picks below

Week 18 in the NFL is a minefield. Trying to parse through who needs what and who wants what when it comes to wins, losses and playoff seedings can basically be akin to an advanced calculus class. In this week’s NFL upset picks, we’re searching for the value in teams that look to still be playing hard against teams that may have playoff potential, but have looked shaky in recent games.

See why we like the Bears, Cardinals and Giants as top NFL underdog picks for Week 18 below.

NFL Week 18 Upset Picks

Our Week 18 NFL upset picks will include plays on the Bears (+135), Cardinals (+125) and Giants (+190). Odds from ESPN Sportsbook. Right now you can get $150 in bonus bets at ESPN BET by using promo code ‘DIME’ at sign-up and making a $10 bet on the NFL this weekend! Click the banner below to get started with one of the top NFL betting apps!

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Week 18 NFL Upset Picks

In this week’s underdog predictions I’m riding with three teams who are out of the NFL playoff bracket picture, but who have still been playing hard and could play spoiler on Sunday.

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NFL Upset Picks 1: Bears Over Packers

Here’s a game where I’ll go against all the historical NFL team trends between the teams and take the Bears in this week’s NFL upset picks.

The Packers had an 18-point win over the Bears earlier this season and are 9-0 and 26-4 SU over the Bears in a divisional dominance that has gone on for many years. Obviously many of those wins came with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay.

But Chicago can play spoiler here on Green Bay’s playoff hopes and have been the team playing better in recent weeks. Chicago has won four of five and are 8-6-2 ATS on the year and 6-5-1 ATS as an underdog.

The Packers’ only two wins in the past month have come over the Panthers and the Vikings, with the Vikings playing with backup quarterbacks. Green Bay is just 1-3 ATS in their past four games as well.

NFL Upset Picks: Bears (+135)

Packers beat the Vikings on SNF 😤

A win vs. the Bears in Week 18 clinches a playoff berth for Green Bay. pic.twitter.com/TjE5lZDMla

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) January 1, 2024

NFL Upset Picks 2: Cardinals Over Seahawks

While Seattle is no doubt the better team and the team with something to play for here, they stuggle immensely to stop the run and that is precisely the Cardinals’ strength.

Seattle is 30th in rush defense and have given up 197, 128, 95, 165, 83 and 153 yards to opposing running backs in recent weeks.

Both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren ran all over them last week for 122 and 75 yards respectively for Pittsburgh.

Arizona owns the league’s sixth-best rushing offense averaging 134.9 yards per game. The Cards have been fiesty in recent weeks upsetting Philadelphia 35-31 last week and even hanging around and scoring 29 points versus San Fran in Week 16, albeit losing 45-29.

Last week Kyler Murray threw for three touchdown passes and has at least one passing score in six straight games. James Connor ran over the Eagles for 128 yards and a score and he’s rushed for 45, 86 and 105 yards, plus three more touchdowns in his three games prior as well. The Cards could follow a similar strategy this week and offer value in your underdog picks.

NFL Upset Picks: Cardinals (+125)

Kyler Murray to a one-handed James Connor for the TD! What a catch!!! 🤯 pic.twitter.com/uIoQcMdyQc

— OutOfSightSports🚀™️ (@OOSSports) December 31, 2023

NFL Upset Picks 3: Giants Over Eagles

Tyrod Taylor got one half versus the Eagles two weeks ago but threw for 133 yards, one touchdown, plus one interception. The Giants were down 20-3 going into halftime, but mounted a furious comeback in what eventually ended in a 33-25 loss. New York has lost three straight after last week’s 26-25 defeat to the Rams, but they are still 3-3 SU in their past six.

But this is mostly a bet against the Eagles who can’t seem to do anything right lately. They’re 11-5 but four of those five losses have come in their past five games. Thus making that Giants win their only win since November 26.

Last week, as discussed earlier in this article, Philly lost 35-31 to the Cardinals. But look past that scoreline and things could’ve been much worse. Arizona held the edge in total yards (449-275), passing yards (228-184), rushing yards (221-91), yards per play (6.2-5.9), first downs (32-17), total plays (72-47) and dominated the time of possession (39:39-20:21).

The Giants don’t have the same type of rushing offense as the Caridnals do, but it’s still their strength, being 16th in rushing offense, and 32nd in passing offense. This could be a good day for Saquon Barkley in the NFL props markets, as the Eagles have given up 189, 80, 102, 105, 116, 92 and 116 yards to opposing running backs in recent weeks. It’s not like the Eagles’ pass defense has been any better ranking 28th on the year.

It’s hard to trust the Eagles to win by any number these days, making the Giants at home, where they are 4-2-1 ATS as a home dog this season a good underdog bet.

NFL Upset Picks: Giants (+190)

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