Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Odds & Player Props

Apr 4, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) celebrates during the second half against the Atlanta Hawks at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY SportsThe Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks clash on Sunday afternoon basketballThe latest Rockets vs Mavs odds favor Dallas despite Luka Doncic’s unknown statusRead below for Rockets vs Mavericks prediction, odds and player props for Sunday’s game

The NBA regular season is winding down, and we have a pivotal intrastate showdown to start the day, as the Houston Rockets square off against the Dallas Mavericks.

According to BetMGM Sportsbook, the Mavericks open as the favorites on the moneyline, while the Rockets are + underdogs. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:30 PM ET from the American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX. This game will be nationally televised on ABC.

Let’s get into our Rockets vs Mavs prediction as we analyze the odds and determine the best player prop bets to make.

Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks Odds

In the Sunday NBA odds, the Mavericks are moneyline (tbd) favorites over the Rockets, giving them an implied win probability.

When these two teams met back on March 31st in Houston, the Mavericks rolled to a 125-107 victory as 4.5-point road favorites

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Odds as of April 6, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Unlock the BetMGM promo code to bet on Rockets vs Mavericks.

Rockets Playoff Chances Dwindling

Coach Ime Udoka and his Rockets made things interesting down the stretch, going on an incredible 13-1 straight up (SU) run through March. That pulled them within a couple of games of the play-in tournament, but they’ve now lost four straight games. The four defeats have dropped them four games back of the 10th-place Warriors in the NBA Playoff Bracket.

Included in the current four-game slide are losses to Dallas (125-107), Minnesota (113-106), Golden State (133-110), and Miami (119-104), most recently. From a betting perspective, the Rockets come into this Western Conference clash at 42-33-2 against the spread (ATS) and they’ve split their totals 38-38-1 to the over and under.

The Rockets failed to cover as a 3.5-point underdog in their recent 15-point home loss to the Heat. The two sides split the turnover battle (nine apiece), while Miami led every other major statistical battle, including field goal percentage (49.4% to 37.8%), three-point shooting (36.1% to 31.8%), and rebounding (48 to 45).

The Rockets have been a middle-of-the-pack offensive team this season, ranking 16th in offensive rating at 114.0 points scored per 100 possessions. However, their defensive numbers have been subpar, as they’ve surrendered 112.8 points per 100 possessions (20th).

Individually, Fred VanVleet has been the most productive player in the backcourt, adding 16.7 points per game, while posting team-high marks in assists (8.1 APG), steals (1.4 SPG), and blocks (0.8 BPG). As for injuries, it’s worth mentioning that Amen Thompson (9.2 PPG) is questionable with an ankle injury.

Mavericks Trying To Avoid Play-In Tournament

Meanwhile, Dallas continues to play excellent basketball, as they’ve won 13 of their last 15 games. Jason Kidd and his Mavericks are currently riding a two-game winning streak, where they’ve taken care of the Hawks (109-95) and Warriors (108-106), more recently.

Dallas is in fifth place in the West, two games behind the Los Angeles Clippers and one game ahead of Phoenix. If you’re looking to take a long-term stake in the Mavs, you can find them at +2500 in the NBA Championship odds, the eighth-shortest odds in the market.

The Dallas Mavericks have gone 13-2 over their last 15 games. During this span, they lead the NBA in defensive rating and trail only the Boston Celtics in net rating.

Offensive Rating: 116.2 (8th)Defensive Rating: 105.4 (1st)Net Rating: 10.7 (2nd)

— Grant Afseth (@GrantAfseth) April 6, 2024

As for their game-level betting numbers, they come into this contest at 45-32 ATS and they’ve seen the under cash at a rate of 42-34-1.

Dallas was actually a 1.5-point home underdog last time out, so they covered in the two-point win against Golden State. The Mavericks outshot their opposition from both the field (47.6% to 44.1%) and from three-point range (35.3% to 34.3%), while the Warriors were better in turnovers (15 to 18) and rebounding (44 to 41).

As for individual efforts, Luka Doncic has led the way this season. The point guard leads the team in scoring (33.8 PPG), rebounding (9.2 RPG), assists (9.8 APG), and steals (1.5 SPG). However, he’s listed as questionable with a knee injury.

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Rockets vs Mavericks Player Props

DraftKings have released NBA player props for the Rockets vs Mavericks game, with Luka Doncic sporting the highest point total at 30.5,

Player	Points (Ov/Un)	Rebounds (Ov/Un)	Assists (Ov/Un)	Three-Pointers Made (Ov/Un)
Amen Thompson	12.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)	8.5 (Ov -140 | Un +110)	2.5 (Ov -140 | Un +110)	0.5 (Ov +310 | Un -445)
Daniel Gafford	10.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)	7.5 (Ov -135 | Un +105)	OFF	OFF
Derrick Jones Jr.	8.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)	3.5 (Ov -150 | Un +120)	OFF	0.5 (Ov -190 | Un +145)
Dillon Brooks	9.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100)	3.5 (Ov +114 | Un -145)	OFF	1.5 (Ov +105 | Un -135)
Fred VanVleet	14.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)	3.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)	7.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)	2.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)
Jabari Smith Jr.	14.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)	8.5 (Ov +110 | Un -140)	OFF	1.5 (Ov -135 | Un +105)
Jalen Green	24.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)	5.5 (Ov -135 | Un +105)	3.5 (Ov -145 | Un +114)	2.5 (Ov -130 | Un +100)
Kyrie Irving	25.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)	4.5 (Ov -135 | Un +105)	5.5 (Ov +124 | Un -160)	2.5 (Ov -166 | Un +130)
Luka Doncic	30.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)	10.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)	9.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)	3.5 (Ov -145 | Un +114)
P.J. Washington	12.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)	6.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130)	OFF	1.5 (Ov -166 | Un +130)

NBA Player Prop odds as of April 6th, at DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction

When it comes to making a Rockets vs. Mavericks prediction, I’m siding with the red-hot Mavs to take care of business at home against the reeling Rockets. Dallas has been one of the hottest teams in the league over the past month, while Houston has completely fallen off after its impressive mid-season run.

With the Mavs still jockeying for playoff positioning and the Rockets likely playing for pride at this point, lay the points with the superior team in this intrastate matchup. The line has shifted a half point towards the home team, indicating sharps are in agreement.

I’m also expecting an up-and-down, high-scoring affair in this Western Conference battle. Both of these teams prefer to play at a fast pace, and their defensive numbers haven’t been great this season. The Rockets have seen the over cash at a 5-1 clip over their last six games, which is a trend that should continue Sunday.

HOU vs DAL Picks:

Mavericks -7.5 (-110)Over 226.5 (-110)

 

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