Game 5 Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars Prediction, Odds & Prop Picks

May 11, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Dallas Stars left wing Jamie Benn (14) passes the puck as Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar (8) defends in the third period in game three of the second round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY SportsThe Dallas Stars are favored to eliminate the Colorado Avalanche on Wednesday nightOur Stars vs Avalanche prediction for Game 5 focuses on the game totalRead below for Stars vs Avalanche prediction, odds, and prop picks tonight

Oddsmakers are forecasting the Dallas Stars to become the first team to advance to the NHL Conference Finals. Dallas is in Game 5 of its Round 2 NHL Playoff series on May 15. Puck drop is set for 8:00 PM ET.

The Stars have taken a commanding 3-1 series lead after stealing two games in Denver. They return home with a chance to punch their ticket to Round 3, although they will be missing a key piece of their roster.

Let’s explore the Stars vs Avalanche odds for Game 5 as we provide our expert prediction.

Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche Odds – Game 5

Dallas is a short -125 home favorite to close out the series in Game 5, which is 55.6% implied win probability.

The Stars are +240 favorites in the updated Stanley Cup odds, while the Avs are +4000 longshots (worse odds of any remaining team).

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Odds as of May 15, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Get up to $1500 back by unlocking the BetMGM promos for Stars vs Avalanche. 

Stars Are Streaking

Dallas has won three straight games in this series after falling in overtime in Game 1. They are coming off two impressive road victories in Games 3 and 4 in which they outscored the Avs 9-1. It’s not common for teams to come into Denver and dominate the home team.

DALLAS WE'RE COMING HOME WITH A 3-1 SERIES LEAD!@Lexus | #TexasHockey pic.twitter.com/H5t6EPkF7I

— z – Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) May 14, 2024

The star of Dallas’ playoff run is recently turned 21-year-old Wyatt Johnston, who scored his 10th and 11th goals of the postseason in the previous contest. Right up there in the team MVP conversation is Jake Oettinger, who has posted a stellar .923 save percentage this postseason.

It’s not all good news for Dallas, however, as top forward Roope Hintz won’t be available tonight due to an upper-body injury. Hintz, who has six points this postseason, was injured late in the first period on Monday after blocking a shot by Avalanche defenseman Sean Walker.

Avalanche Trying to Find Game

In our previous prediction, we picked Colorado to even the series as we felt the veteran group would play desperate hockey facing a potential 3-1 series deficit. While they didn’t necessarily play as badly as the final 5-1 score indicates, Colorado simply wasn’t good enough in a virtual must-win scenario.

Nathan MacKinnon on their confidence level: “It’s ok, I guess. We just lost 3 in a row. Not scoring much. Just have to work ourselves out of it.

l wouldn't say it's super high. I mean, it's just natural.

I think when you're not producing and scoring how we usually do – and that…

— Meghan Angley (@megangley) May 14, 2024

The Stars outshot the Avs 35-25 in Monday’s game, while generating 15 high-danger chances compared to 11 high-danger opportunities for Colorado. The Avs’ power play continues to struggle, failing to convert on eight opportunities in this series.

Colorado is feeling the loss of Russian star Valeri Nichushkin, who was placed in Stage 3 of the NHL’s player assistance program and suspended for at least six months without pay. Nichushkin leads the Avalanche with nine goals this postseason, including four with the man advantage.

NHL Public Betting Trends – Daily Bet and Money PercentagesRead More

DAL-COL Player Props

Avalanche vs Stars player props have been released, with Nathan MacKinnon sporting the best odds at -115 to find twine. He has one goal and two assists in this series after recording nine points in the previous round.

Player	Anytime Goalscorer	Shots on Goal (O/U)	Points (O/U)
Nathan MacKinnon	-115	4.5 (-105o/-125u)	1.5 (-120o/-110u)
Mikko Rantanen	+125	3.5 (+130o/-166u)	1.5 (+135o/-175u)
Wyatt Johnston	+150	3.5 (+135o/-175u)	0.5 (-166o/+130u)
Artturi Lehkonen	+180	2.5 (-115o/-115u)	0.5 (-135o/+105u)
Jason Robertson	+180	2.5 (+105o/-135u)	0.5 (-215o/+165u)
Tyler Seguin	+245	2.5 (-120o/-110u)	0.5 (-110o/-120u)
Jonathan Drouin	+280	1.5 (-135o/+105u)	0.5 (-125o/-105u)
Jamie Benn	+285	1.5 (-180o/+140u)	0.5 (-125o/-105u)
Joe Pavelski	+295	1.5 (-160o/+124u)	0.5 (-110o/-120u)
Cale Makar	+300	3.5 (+130o/-166u)	0.5 (-245o/+185u)

NHL player prop odds as of May. 15, 2024, at DraftKings Sportsbook.

We’re looking to target Colorado’s veteran superstars with the season on the line. MacKinnon’s shot prop, in particular, seems like solid value given the stakes. Nate Dogg attempted 12 shots in Monday’s game but only got four on net. That’s only the second time all season he’s failed to hit the mark with that level of volume.

MacKinnon should keep firing away on Wednesday, with more of those shots hitting the target. Nischukin’s absence will only boost his player prop value, as he averages almost 5.5 shots per contest without the big Russian in the lineup. Furthermore, in his two most recent elimination games, Nate’s averaged eight shots on goal.

We’re also looking at sprinkling on Cale Makar as an anytime goalscorer, as he’s due for a big game after going quiet following his highlight-reel goal in Game 1. Makar is second on Colorado with 36 shot attempts in this series and has averaged four shots on net in his two most recent elimination games.

Game 5 Prop Picks:

Nathan MacKinnon Over 4.5 Shots on Goal (-105)Cale Makar Anytime Goal (+300 Sprinkle)

Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche Game 5 Prediction

Can Colorado pull out a win with their season on the line? We just witnessed Boston do this very thing against Florida in Game 5 despite the Cats seemingly having garnered all the momentum in the series.

Dallas is just 5-13 all-time in Game 5s when it is leading 3-1 in the series. However, it has advanced to the next round in all but one of these scenarios. It’s uncharacteristic for the Avs to go down without a fight, but the team clearly isn’t playing with much confidence right now.

The “under” is a long-term profitable bet in NHL elimination games, and it’s our best bet tonight. We’re forecasting a tight-checking affair as the Avs aim to clean up in front of Georgiev. The Stars’ defense, including Oettinger, meanwhile, should continue to do its thing.

The Stars put up five on the scoreboard Monday, which typically means there won’t be as many goals scored the following game. The “under” is on a 6-0 run in Stars’ last six after scoring five goals or more in their previous game.

DAL-COL Game 5 Pick:

Under 6.5 Goals (-145 at BetMGM)

 

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