Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Odds, Lines & Predictions for July 19

Jun 19, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Houston Astros pitcher Hunter Brown (58) delivers against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY SportsThe Seattle Mariners (52-46) host the Houston Astros (50-46) tonight as MLB action resumes following the All-Star break.Ace Luis Castillo (8-9, 3.53 ERA) gets the ball for the Mariners, while the Astros counter with Hunter Brown (7-6, 4.39 ERA).Check out the section below for our top picks from tonight’s AL West showdown.

MLB play resumes on Friday night after the All-Star break. The Mariners host the Astros in a battle of the top 2 teams in the AL West. Seattle holds a 1-game lead in the standings as the back half of the regular season begins. Will the Mariners be able to extend their lead in the division this weekend? Or can the Astros overtake their AL West rivals with a strong showing in Seattle? Tonight’s series opener is scheduled to start at 10:10 p.m. ET and can be seen on the MLB Network.

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Picks

Astros Moneyline (-105)Hunter Brown 8+ Strikeouts (+145)

The Mariners are 5-2 against the Astros so far this season. Hunter Brown is 0-2 against Seattle, but there’s a catch with that stat. Back on May 28, Brown and Castillo went head-to-head like they will tonight. Brown tossed 6 innings, striking out 9 and allowing only 1 earned run. Castillo was also sharp through his 6 innings, but he allowed 2 runs. So the Astros were actually leading when the starters came out of the game.

I’ll take the Houston bullpen to fare a bit better this time around, holding onto the lead I expect Brown to give them. You can get the Astros’ moneyline at -105 over at bet365.

Speaking of Brown, he had 9 strikeouts in that aforementioned May 28 start against Houston. The Mariners strike out at the highest rate in baseball, whiffing 10.34 times per contest. Thus, getting Brown to have 8 or more K’s at +145 odds is pretty great value. I’ll take that with a smile on my face and count on the Astros’ starter to do what everyone else does and make the Mariners swing and miss early and often.

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Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Odds

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As I described above, I’m riding with the Astros on the moneyline at -105. If you’re backing the Mariners, you can get the home team at -115 odds. If you think Seattle can win by 2+ runs, there’s +180 odds on that via bet365. The Astros are -220 to lose by 1 run or win. The run total for tonight’s AL West action is set at 7.0, with the over at -120 and the under at +100.

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Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Starting Pitchers

While it is true that Brown has an ERA nearly a run per 9 innings higher than Castillo’s, we need to dive deeper into that. Brown’s ERA was inflated by an awful April, which saw him allow 25 earned runs in only 19 innings of work. He had an April ERA of 11.84.

Since then, he posted a 3.42 mark in May, a sterling 1.16 ERA in June and a respectable 4.50 ERA in 3 July starts before the All-Star break.

Castillo, meanwhile, had a 5.13 ERA in June. He’s been sharper in July, winning both his starts and recording a 0.71 ERA. Basically, we can probably expect another pitcher’s duel tonight like the one back on May 28.

In terms of strikeout rate, these 2 pitchers are very similar. They’re both having good years, but their K rates are lower than they have been the past couple of years. We’ll see which pitcher can be at his best after some extra rest tonight at 10:10 p.m. ET on the MLB Network.

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